Data section

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Contrasting the London Mayor’s transport ambitions with reality

N.B. This infographic piece has been designed using aggregated data from Transport for London’s “Consolidated Estimates of Total Travel and Mode Shares” dated December 2024. Visuals have been generated via AI prompts based on the resulting dataset (click here to download)

Such is the proportion of active, efficient and sustainable transportation that the Mayor of London aims to achieve in the UK capital by 2041. The ambition of this goal begs the question: how is London truly faring and is the target realistically achievable?

Using the latest transportation statistics issued by the TfL – covering all travel involving residents, commuters and visitors – we’re in a position to concisely comment on the trends affecting modal share in the capital during the last decade.

Those changes are heavily conditioned by the recent evolution in London’s population and economy. The former’s growth has been slower than expected, with London even losing inhabitants between 2019 and 2021 due to fewer births and net outflows, partially correlated with the Covid pandemic. The city’s demographics also highlight that the population is becoming relatively older and more female. This, in turn, explains slow modifications of travel demand patterns: women tend to use the bus and walk more while men favour both rail and car. Additionally, the older someone gets, the less they tend to travel.

Intertwined with the demographic question is the subdued nature of London’s current economy compared with historical trends. Low growth and cost-of-living pressures, as well as the legacy of increased remote working following the pandemic have been negatively impacting travel demand.

Following the 2020-2021 dent on urban travel, most modes of transportation have known continued growth in demand but their total trips remain lower than pre-pandemic levels – only walking and cycling are higher now than in 2019 while public transport has clearly suffered.

The share of all sustainable modes of transport (whose definition is limited by the Mayor’s Office to walking, cycling and public transportation – excluding for instance private electric cars) has grown by 1% in 2023 to reach 63.2% of the total 26.1 million trips taken daily in London.

Improvements in modal distribution are great when compared to the year 2000 but the rate of change in favour of sustainable transport has slowed in the most recent years. This has the potential to challenge the ambitious goals set by the Mayor of London and highlights the need for an increased conversion rate to sustainable means if the 2041 target is ever to be met.

Despite the doubts raised by recent travel data with respect to the realism of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, other KPIs dating from 2016 onwards attest to the political dedication of the current administration to sustainable urban mobility and may foster optimism for the future, as shown below:

Highlights since 2016

Data from www.london.gov.uk/programmes-strategies/transport/green-transport

EV charging points

Longer cycle network

Low-emission buses

Of black cabs now zero-emission capable

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